In a striking conversation between political analyst Jason Jay Smart and Chuck Pfarrer, former SEAL Team Six assault element commander and national security strategist, the two dissected how Ukraine is turning the tide—not by outgunning Russia head-on, but by outthinking it.
Pfarrer, a combat veteran and seasoned observer of strategic warfare, laid out how Ukraine has flipped the script on Moscow’s decades-old doctrine of attrition warfare. “Ukraine isn’t meeting Russia force-on-force,” he explained. “They’re doing what special forces are trained to do—fight only where and when they can win.”
That means precision: drones striking Russian troops before they mobilize, HIMARS targeting Russian supply lines, and deeper hits into the Russian heartland—crippling the factories and infrastructure that sustain Putin’s war machine. Ukraine isn’t trying to hold every meter of land; they’re trying to choke off Russia’s ability to keep fighting at all.
“Russia has taken 420 square kilometers this summer,” Pfarrer noted. “That’s roughly the size of Phoenix, Arizona. But they’ve lost 60,000 men to do it. That’s one battalion a day, every day, for two months. That’s not victory. That’s a meat grinder.”
Indeed, morale in the Russian ranks is visibly eroding. Entire squads are surrendering intact in areas like Pokrovsk and Sumy. “They’re not fighting because they know they’re worthless to their commanders,” Pfarrer said. “You see it in the open tank hatches, the uncamouflaged artillery. They don’t want to fight, and it shows.”
Even Vladimir Putin seems rattled. Smart pointed out that in over two decades of watching the Russian leader, he had never seen him so publicly uncertain. Putin’s recent stammering speeches and vague justifications for new offensives suggest a man struggling to mask internal panic. “He says he needs a buffer zone now,” Smart added. “Last I checked, the goal was Kyiv, not swamps near Sumy.”
Compounding the battlefield problems is an economy in freefall. The head of Russia’s central bank recently admitted that sanctions reserves have been burned through. Russia’s shadow fleet—once crucial to smuggling sanctioned oil—has seen a 70% drop as nations like India and China begin backing away. “They’re afraid of U.S. sanctions,” Smart explained. “And when that bill passes the Senate, it’ll slap a 500% tariff on countries still buying Russian oil. That changes the game.”
Pfarrer sees all of this as a classic slow-motion collapse. “Dictatorships look solid—until they aren’t. Gaddafi, Ceaușescu—they fell fast. And it’s coming. Russia is inducting 30,000 troops a month, which just matches their losses. No training, no gear, no logistics. These guys are being chewed up before they even reach the trenches.”
And what happens if the paychecks stop? If the food runs out? Smart reminded viewers of 1917: two million Russian soldiers deserting, many killing their officers, marching home to bring chaos. “This doesn’t end in victory for Putin,” he said. “It ends in collapse. Maybe faster than anyone expects.”
