Russia’s war in Ukraine isn’t about grabbing a few more miles of dirt. That’s the surface-level read, and it’s tempting to stop there, especially when you see maps with front lines inching forward. But the real game, as George Barros lays out, is far less about territory and far more about breaking the West’s will. Moscow’s strategic aim is to convince the United States and its allies that Ukraine’s defeat is a foregone conclusion, that Russia’s grinding advance is unstoppable, and that it’s time to cut losses and negotiate. It’s a psychological gambit, not a military one, and it’s been the throughline of Russia’s approach for years.
What’s troubling is how this strategy exploits a simple human tendency: we see a line move on a map and assume it means something profound. Russia leans into this, staging attacks not for tactical brilliance but to create the illusion of momentum. Threats of nuclear escalation, exaggerated claims about their economy’s resilience, or the tired “dirty bomb” narrative—these are all smoke and mirrors meant to amplify the perception of Russian inevitability. The truth? Russia’s capacity to sustain this war is shakier than they’d have us believe. Their economy is strained, their manpower isn’t infinite, and Putin’s missteps in financing a protracted conflict are glaring vulnerabilities.
Yet, the strategy isn’t entirely toothless. It’s found traction in pockets—Hungary’s Orban, Slovakia’s Fico, and, to an extent, elements of the current U.S. administration. The closer you are to Ukraine, the clearer the stakes seem; Europe, by and large, isn’t buying Russia’s narrative. But in Washington, there’s been a hesitancy, a willingness to entertain Moscow’s framing that Barros finds frustratingly accommodating. When figures like Marco Rubio insist there’s a military solution to this war, they’re not wrong—most wars do end that way, one side imposing its will. Russia’s betting on the West losing the stomach to stop them.
The kicker is that this psychological campaign isn’t as airtight as Russia hopes. It hinges on the West internalizing a false premise: that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable. But inevitability is a myth here. Russia’s vulnerabilities—economic, logistical, human—are real and exploitable. Supporting Ukraine isn’t just a moral stance; it’s a strategic one. If the West can see through the Kremlin’s bluster, the narrative of Russian dominance crumbles. That should be the wake-up call.
