In the opaque world of Chinese politics, where whispers and rumors often reveal more than official statements, a seismic shift is brewing within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Recent reports suggest that General Liu Yuan, a retired military heavyweight and a prominent “princeling” with deep revolutionary roots, is positioning himself as a potential rival to President Xi Jinping. As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) undergoes a sweeping internal purge and studies the selected works of Mao Zedong, speculation is mounting about Liu’s return to the political stage. Could this formidable figure, once sidelined by Xi, be orchestrating a strategy to reshape China’s leadership? This article delves into Liu Yuan’s background, his alleged plan to challenge Xi, and the broader implications for China’s political and military future.
The Enigmatic Return of General Liu Yuan
The Chinese political landscape is rarely transparent, but recent leaks and reports point to a calculated move within the CCP’s elite circles. According to multiple sources, General Liu Yuan, a retired PLA general and the son of former Chinese President Liu Shaoqi, is being positioned for a significant role in the Central Military Commission (CMC), potentially as vice chairman overseeing political affairs. This development comes at a time when Xi Jinping’s grip on power is under scrutiny, with internal purges targeting his loyalists and key figures like Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua fading from the spotlight.
Liu Yuan’s return is not merely a personnel change; it is a signal of deeper power struggles within the CCP. As a princeling—born into the CCP’s revolutionary aristocracy—Liu carries significant clout. His father, Liu Shaoqi, was a towering figure in China’s early communist history, serving as president until his purge during the Cultural Revolution. This pedigree gives Liu a unique standing among the CCP’s elite, outranking even Xi Jinping, whose father was a vice premier. Liu’s experience in both military and civilian governance further distinguishes him as a versatile leader, capable of bridging the gap between the PLA and the party’s political apparatus.
A Strategic Maneuver: Elevating Mao to Undermine Xi
At the heart of Liu Yuan’s alleged strategy is a clever political gambit: invoking the legacy of Mao Zedong to challenge Xi Jinping’s authority. Recent reports indicate that the PLA is studying Mao’s selected works, a move that has sparked debate about whether Xi is tightening his grip or losing it. Some analysts see this as a return to Cultural Revolution-style politics, a hallmark of Xi’s emphasis on ideological purity. However, others argue that this is a calculated move by Liu Yuan and his allies, particularly General Zhang Youxia, to weaken Xi’s influence.
Since no CCP leader after Mao—not Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, nor Hu Jintao—developed a formal military doctrine, Mao’s teachings remain the only viable alternative to Xi Jinping Thought. By elevating Mao, Liu and his supporters can sideline Xi’s ideological framework without directly confronting him. Mao, a revered and untouchable figure in CCP politics, serves as a shield for this maneuver. As one source described it, this is a case of “using one poison to fight another”—leveraging Mao’s legacy to dismantle Xi’s military and political dominance.
This strategy, often referred to as “signal left, turn right,” echoes the tactics of Deng Xiaoping, who used ideological rhetoric to mask pragmatic reforms. By publicly embracing Mao, Liu Yuan can appeal to the PLA’s traditionalists while quietly pursuing a more reformist agenda, such as nationalizing the military and reducing its role as the CCP’s private army. This approach allows Liu to navigate the treacherous waters of CCP politics, where direct challenges to the paramount leader can lead to swift retribution.
Liu Yuan’s Rise: A Princeling’s Pedigree and Power
To understand Liu Yuan’s potential to challenge Xi, it’s essential to examine his background and the factors that make him a formidable figure. Born in 1951 in Beijing, Liu is the son of Liu Shaoqi and Wang Guangmei, a multilingual interpreter and CCP operative. His early life was shaped by the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution, during which his father was purged by Mao Zedong, leaving a lasting impact on Liu’s worldview and political ambitions.
Liu’s career spans both civilian and military spheres, a rarity among CCP leaders. In the 1980s, he served as vice mayor of Zhengzhou and vice governor of Henan, demonstrating his administrative acumen. He later transitioned to the People’s Armed Police and, in 2003, joined the PLA as a deputy political commissar of the General Logistics Department. By 2005, he was appointed political commissar of the PLA Academy of Military Science, and in 2009, he was promoted to full general. His tenure as political commissar of the General Logistics Department until his retirement in 2015 cemented his reputation as a reform-minded leader, particularly in his vocal opposition to corruption within the PLA.
Liu’s anti-corruption stance made him a significant figure in the early years of Xi’s anti-corruption campaign. In 2012, his accusations against senior military officers, including General Xu Caihou and Lieutenant General Gu Junshan, paved the way for high-profile corruption charges, aligning him with Xi’s efforts to clean up the PLA. However, this alliance was short-lived. By 2015, Xi forced Liu into retirement, officially citing disagreements over military reforms but likely driven by personal mistrust and jealousy. Liu’s competence, revolutionary pedigree, and reformist reputation posed a threat to Xi, who has consolidated power by sidelining potential rivals.
The Princeling Advantage
In the CCP’s “red aristocracy,” lineage matters. Liu Yuan’s status as the son of a former president gives him a level of legitimacy that Xi, whose father was a vice premier, cannot match. This clout is particularly significant in princeling circles, where familial ties and historical connections shape alliances. Liu’s close relationship with General Zhang Youxia, another princeling and a key figure in the CMC, further strengthens his position. Zhang, a Xi ally but reportedly open to alternative leadership, is said to support Liu’s return, seeing him as a stabilizing force in a post-Xi era.
Liu’s personal rivalry with Xi adds another layer of complexity. Sources suggest that Xi viewed Liu as a threat due to his superior competence and broader experience. Unlike Zhang Youxia, a career military man, or Wang Yang, a civilian politician with no military background, Liu bridges both worlds. His ability to navigate the PLA’s political intricacies while maintaining credibility in civilian governance makes him a uniquely qualified candidate to lead China through its next chapter.
The Power Vacuum: Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua’s Retreat
The backdrop to Liu Yuan’s resurgence is the conspicuous absence of two other potential successors: Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua. Just weeks ago, these men were touted as China’s next leadership duo, with Wang expected to replace Xi as party leader and Hu slated to become premier. Yet, both have gone silent, with rumors suggesting they have chosen to “lie flat” and bow out of the leadership race.
This retreat is strategic. Wang Yang reportedly conditioned his acceptance of the top job on control of the military, a demand that Zhang Youxia, a key powerbroker, was unlikely to grant. Without military backing, Wang and Hu risked becoming figureheads, akin to Zhao Ziyang, whose brief tenure as party leader ended in political oblivion during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. By stepping back, they avoid a powerless role and leave the door open for a figure like Liu Yuan, who commands respect in both military and political spheres.
The absence of Wang and Hu creates a vacuum that Liu Yuan is poised to fill. Sources indicate that Zhang Youxia and party elders have reached a consensus to bring Liu back as a temporary vice chairman of the CMC, replacing a vice chairman who has been absent since March. This role, while interim, could position Liu for greater influence, potentially as party secretary general and CMC chairman—roles currently held by Xi.
The Military Purge: Targeting Xi’s Loyalists
The PLA’s ongoing internal purge is a critical factor in Liu Yuan’s strategy. Described as a direct assault on Xi Jinping and his loyalists, the purge aims to dismantle the military foundation of Xi’s power. By removing officers loyal to Xi, Liu and his allies are weakening the president’s control over the PLA, a cornerstone of his authority.
This purge is not without precedent. Xi’s own anti-corruption campaign, launched in 2012, targeted thousands of military officers, consolidating his grip on the PLA. However, the current purge suggests a reversal, with Xi’s allies now in the crosshairs. Liu Yuan’s history as an anti-corruption advocate makes him a natural leader for this effort, lending credibility to his role as a reformer within the military.
Nationalizing the PLA: A Reformist Vision
One of Liu Yuan’s most ambitious goals is to transform the PLA from a party-controlled military into a national defense force. This idea, which he has publicly supported, challenges the CCP’s long-standing principle that the military serves the party, not the state. A nationalized PLA would prioritize China’s defense over the CCP’s political objectives, potentially reducing the military’s role in domestic repression and enhancing its professionalism.
This reformist vision aligns with broader calls for change within the PLA, particularly among officers who see the current system as inefficient and overly politicized. Liu’s return could galvanize these reformers, creating momentum for a restructuring of the military’s role in Chinese society. Such a shift would have profound implications, not only for China’s domestic politics but also for its foreign policy and global military posture.
The Geopolitical Stakes: A Post-Xi China
Liu Yuan’s potential rise comes at a critical juncture for China. Xi Jinping’s leadership has been defined by assertive foreign policies, economic challenges, and a tightening of domestic control. However, his consolidation of power has also created enemies within the CCP, particularly among those who view his policies as unsustainable. Liu’s return, backed by Zhang Youxia and party elders, could signal a shift toward a more pragmatic and reformist approach.
Domestic Implications
A Liu Yuan-led China would likely prioritize stability and economic recovery over ideological purity. His experience in civilian governance suggests a focus on practical solutions, such as addressing China’s economic slowdown and tackling corruption without the heavy-handed tactics of Xi’s campaign. His military reforms could also professionalize the PLA, making it a more effective force while reducing its role in domestic politics.
However, Liu’s rise is not without risks. The CCP’s internal power struggles are notoriously brutal, and Xi’s loyalists may resist any attempt to sideline him. Liu’s reliance on Mao’s legacy, while strategic, could alienate reformers who view Maoist ideology as outdated. Balancing these factions will require political acumen and the support of key allies like Zhang Youxia.
Global Implications
On the global stage, Liu Yuan’s leadership could alter China’s trajectory. His reformist stance might lead to a less confrontational foreign policy, particularly in disputes over Taiwan and the South China Sea. A nationalized PLA could prioritize defense over expansion, potentially easing tensions with the United States and other powers. However, Liu’s lack of alignment with Xi could also create uncertainty, as China’s allies and adversaries adjust to a new leadership dynamic.
The Road Ahead: Can Liu Yuan Succeed?
Liu Yuan’s path to leadership is fraught with challenges. Xi Jinping remains a formidable figure, with a loyal base within the CCP and the PLA. The ongoing military purge, while weakening Xi’s allies, could provoke a backlash if not carefully managed. Liu’s reliance on Mao’s legacy, while tactically sound, risks alienating younger, reform-minded officers who see Maoism as a relic of the past.
Moreover, Liu’s personal rivalry with Xi adds a layer of complexity. Xi’s decision to force Liu into retirement in 2015 was driven by mistrust and jealousy, emotions that could resurface if Liu’s influence grows. To succeed, Liu will need to navigate these tensions while building a broad coalition of support within the CCP and the PLA.
The Role of Zhang Youxia
General Zhang Youxia, a key figure in the CMC, is a critical ally for Liu. As a princeling and a close friend, Zhang brings military credibility and political influence to Liu’s cause. His reported reluctance to assume the top leadership role himself makes Liu a natural choice to lead the party and the military. However, Zhang’s loyalty to Xi, a fellow princeling, could complicate this alliance. If Zhang perceives Liu as a threat to his own power, the partnership could falter.
The Party Elders’ Calculus
The CCP’s party elders, a shadowy but influential group, play a pivotal role in this power struggle. Their decision to back Liu suggests a desire for stability and a counterbalance to Xi’s dominance. However, their support is not guaranteed. If Liu’s reforms prove too radical or his leadership falters, the elders may shift their allegiance to another candidate, leaving Liu vulnerable.
Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble
General Liu Yuan’s potential return to the political stage marks a turning point in China’s opaque power dynamics. By leveraging Mao Zedong’s legacy to challenge Xi Jinping, Liu is playing a high-stakes game that could reshape the CCP and the PLA. His unique combination of revolutionary pedigree, military experience, and civilian governance makes him a formidable contender, but the road to leadership is fraught with obstacles.
As China navigates economic challenges, geopolitical tensions, and internal purges, Liu Yuan’s vision for a reformed, nationalized PLA offers a glimpse of a different future. Whether he can overcome Xi’s entrenched power and unite the CCP’s factions remains to be seen. For now, the whispers of Liu’s return are growing louder, signaling a power struggle that could define China’s next chapter. The world watches as the quiet rival makes his move, poised to challenge the most powerful leader China has seen in decades.
