In the vast expanse of the Pacific, where tensions simmer over territorial disputes and rising powers flex their might, the U.S. Air Force is quietly absorbing critical lessons from an unlikely source: Ukraine’s beleaguered air force. Facing overwhelming odds against Russia’s superior numbers and technology since the 2022 invasion, Ukraine has defied expectations, keeping its aging Soviet-era jets airborne amid relentless missile and drone barrages. For General Kevin Schneider, commander of the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), and Command Chief Master Sergeant Katie McCool, these improbable successes offer a masterclass in resilience, adaptability, and coalition-building—key ingredients for deterring a potential conflict with China, which could reshape the 21st century. This article explores how Ukraine’s battlefield ingenuity is informing U.S. strategies in the Pacific, delving into the operational, technological, and human lessons that could define America’s ability to project air power in a region fraught with risk.
The Pacific Challenge: A High-Stakes Arena
The Pacific Air Forces, overseeing 46,000 troops and a staggering 100 million square miles of territory, bear a weighty responsibility: deterring what could be humanity’s bloodiest conflict yet—a war with China. China’s military modernization has been relentless. By 2025, its navy is the world’s largest by ship count, its nuclear warhead production outpaces any nation, and its territorial disputes—spanning the South China Sea, Taiwan, and borders with India and others—number nearly a dozen. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, with its arsenal of long-range missiles, and China’s mass production of low-cost drones pose direct threats to U.S. air superiority, challenging America’s ability to sustain operations across vast oceanic distances.
China’s industrial might amplifies these concerns. Its shipyards and factories churn out military hardware at a scale unmatched by the U.S., raising questions about America’s capacity to endure a prolonged conflict. Unlike the U.S., which relies on high-cost, high-tech platforms like the F-35, China’s strategy blends quantity with advanced systems, such as hypersonic missiles and stealth fighters like the J-20. The Pentagon’s 2024 China Military Power Report notes Beijing’s ability to sustain high-tempo operations, potentially overwhelming U.S. forces in a war of attrition.
Yet, General Schneider and his team aren’t planning in isolation. The war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, provides a real-world laboratory for studying modern warfare’s complexities—particularly how a smaller, less-equipped force can endure against a numerically superior adversary. By analyzing Ukraine’s tactics, PACAF is refining its approach to agile combat employment (ACE), base resilience, and coalition operations, ensuring readiness for a Pacific conflict that would differ vastly from Ukraine’s land-centric fight but share core principles of survival and adaptability.
Ukraine’s Air Force: Defying the Odds
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the odds were stacked against Kyiv’s air force. With just 128 aging Soviet-era jets—40% being ground-attack platforms like the Su-24 and Su-25—Ukraine faced Russia’s 700+ modernized fighters, including Su-35s and Su-30SMs, armed with long-range R-37 missiles and Kinzhal hypersonics. Many Ukrainian aircraft lacked basic systems like radar warning receivers, leaving them vulnerable to missile locks. Russia’s air defense systems, such as the S-400 Triumph, further tilted the scales, dwarfing Ukraine’s limited Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles.
From September 28, 2022, to September 1, 2024, Russia fired 11,466 missiles—an average of 23 daily for 705 days—targeting Ukrainian airfields, cities, and infrastructure. On paper, this onslaught should have obliterated Ukraine’s air force. Yet, Ukrainian pilots continue flying combat sorties, a testament to their ingenuity and resilience. How have they managed this?
Adaptive Tactics and Agile Combat Employment
Ukraine’s survival hinges on what the U.S. Air Force calls agile combat employment (ACE)—a strategy emphasizing dispersed operations to minimize vulnerability. Facing constant missile and drone strikes, Ukraine disperses its jets across makeshift airfields, highways, and remote bases, complicating Russian targeting. General Schneider highlights this resilience: despite relentless attacks, Ukraine generates sorties by rapidly repairing airfields and protecting assets. For example, Ukrainian engineers use mobile repair teams to patch runways within hours of strikes, often under cover of darkness to evade detection.
This approach resonates in the Pacific, where vast distances and China’s missile reach threaten fixed bases like Guam or Kadena. PACAF is adopting ACE to operate from austere locations—small islands, allied airfields, or even civilian airports—reducing reliance on predictable hubs. Exercises like Talisman Sabre 2025, involving 43,000 troops from 19 nations, test these concepts, simulating dispersed operations against a PLA-like threat.
Foreign Aid and Logistical Challenges
Ukraine’s fleet has been bolstered by foreign donations, including Polish MiG-29s and, recently, American F-16s. However, integrating new platforms isn’t seamless. F-16s require specific runways, maintenance crews, and supply chains, making them vulnerable on the ground. Ukraine’s ability to adapt—training pilots in months and jury-rigging logistics—offers lessons for PACAF, which may need to integrate allied assets quickly in a Pacific war. For instance, operating Australian F-35s or Japanese F-15s alongside U.S. forces requires pre-crisis coordination, a point Schneider emphasizes.
The NCO Edge: Creativity Under Pressure
A surprising lesson comes from Ukraine’s non-commissioned officers (NCOs). Empowered with basic training and low-tech tools—like commercial drones modified for combat—Ukrainian NCOs have become force multipliers. From spotting Russian positions to guiding artillery, their creativity has disrupted larger forces. Schneider and McCool see parallels for PACAF, where NCOs could leverage drones or portable sensors in austere environments, adapting to disrupted communications or supply lines.
This aligns with historical precedents. During World War II, U.S. NCOs improvised solutions in the Pacific, from field repairs to guerrilla tactics. Today, PACAF is training NCOs for ACE, equipping them with tools like small drones and AI-driven targeting systems to maintain lethality under pressure.
Applying Ukraine’s Lessons to the Pacific
While a U.S.-China conflict would differ—spanning oceans, involving advanced stealth platforms, and relying on carrier strike groups—Ukraine’s experience offers universal truths. General Schneider identifies three key takeaways: resilience, information sharing, and empowered NCOs.
Base Resilience and Dispersal
Ukraine’s ability to keep airfields operational despite missile barrages informs PACAF’s strategy. China’s Rocket Force could target U.S. bases with DF-26 “carrier-killer” missiles, necessitating rapid repair and dispersal. PACAF is investing in mobile radar, decoy systems, and quick-repair kits, drawing from Ukraine’s playbook. For example, Ukraine uses inflatable decoys to mislead Russian strikes, a tactic the U.S. is testing in Pacific exercises.
Information Sharing with Allies
Schneider stresses pre-crisis information sharing with allies like Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Ukraine’s success relies on real-time intelligence from NATO, including satellite imagery and missile warnings. In the Pacific, seamless data exchange via systems like Link 16 could synchronize U.S. and allied operations, countering China’s numerical edge. Joint exercises, such as Red Flag, are enhancing these networks, ensuring interoperability before conflict erupts.
Low-Cost, High-Impact Solutions
Ukraine’s use of cheap drones—some costing under $1,000—has neutralized multimillion-dollar Russian assets. This inspires PACAF to explore affordable, scalable systems. The U.S. Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, pairing manned jets with AI-driven drones, mirrors Ukraine’s approach, aiming to overwhelm PLA defenses cost-effectively.
Broader Implications: A New Era of Warfare
Ukraine’s war reveals how modern conflicts blend high-tech and low-tech, manned and unmanned, physical and digital. For the U.S., facing a peer like China, these lessons are urgent. A Pacific war would test endurance, not just firepower. China’s missile stockpiles and drone swarms could disrupt supply lines, demanding Ukraine-style adaptability.
Historically, great powers learn from smaller wars. The U.S. adapted Vietnam’s helicopter tactics for Desert Storm and Iraq’s IED defenses for Afghanistan. Ukraine’s resilience now shapes Pacific strategy, emphasizing flexibility over brute force.
Yet, challenges remain. China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, like those on artificial South China Sea islands, complicate ACE. The U.S. must balance investments in next-gen platforms like the B-21 Raider with Ukraine-inspired low-cost solutions. Moreover, political will—sustaining alliances and public support—will be as critical as hardware.
Conclusion: Preparing for the Unthinkable
As General Schneider and Chief McCool steer PACAF through turbulent times, Ukraine’s improbable defiance offers a roadmap. By embracing resilience, fostering allied trust, and empowering creative NCOs, the U.S. Air Force is preparing for a Pacific conflict that may never come—but cannot be ignored. Ukraine proves that ingenuity can defy odds, a lesson that may determine whether the Pacific remains a theater of deterrence or descends into war. As the skies grow tense, America’s ability to adapt could tip the balance, ensuring peace through strength honed by others’ sacrifice.
