By all appearances, the ceasefire was holding—at least in the way ceasefires often do in this region: tentatively, informally, and riddled with caveats. But yesterday, the uneasy calm shattered when the Houthis launched a dramatic attack on a commercial ship in the Red Sea, their first in over seven months. Hours later, the Israeli Air Force responded with a barrage of airstrikes across Yemen, targeting key Houthi military infrastructure.
The timing is no coincidence. Since the Houthis agreed to a de facto ceasefire with the United States back in May, the Red Sea—once roiled by months of drone and missile assaults—had seen a relative lull. But this latest flare-up makes one thing painfully clear: the Houthis were never truly out of the fight, just biding their time.
The Strike and the Retaliation
The Israeli response was swift and decisive. Around midnight, roughly 20 Israeli fighter jets bombarded five Houthi positions across Yemen, unloading more than 50 munitions. The targets reportedly included weapons depots and radar installations in key coastal cities—ports long suspected of serving as conduits for Iranian arms shipments.
The IDF claimed the strikes were retaliation for repeated Houthi missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory and maritime interests. Among the targets was the Galaxy Leader, a commercial vessel previously seized by Houthi forces and allegedly repurposed to track international shipping with a radar system mounted on its deck. That ship may now be sunk.
On the Houthi side, the story is predictably different. They assert that their air defenses “confronted the aggression,” forcing some Israeli pilots to retreat. While there’s no independent evidence supporting this claim, the Houthis—true to form—have flooded their official channels with declarations of resilience and indignation.
The Attack That Triggered It All
This round of tit-for-tat began with an attack on the Magic Seas, a commercial cargo ship sailing under a Greek flag but owned by Israeli interests. Houthi speedboats reportedly surrounded the vessel, opening fire with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. The assault left the ship listing, flooded, and in danger of sinking. Thankfully, the crew was safely evacuated.
Later, the Houthis claimed the attack involved not just boats but also ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, and unmanned sea vessels. Whether that’s accurate or embellished propaganda remains unclear. What is clear is that the group viewed the attack as a legitimate act of war—a direct response, they said, to the ship’s alleged violation of a self-declared ban on entering Israeli ports.
Ceasefire in Name Only?
The immediate question this raises is whether the Houthis have violated the ceasefire agreement with the United States. Technically, no. That pact—announced rather unceremoniously by former President Trump in early May—was vague and largely verbal. At its core, it boiled down to this: the U.S. wouldn’t strike Houthi positions if the Houthis stopped targeting U.S. assets. So far, both sides have loosely honored that deal.
But attacks on Israeli targets? Those were never part of the equation. And therein lies the loophole the Houthis seem more than willing to exploit.
It’s also worth noting that the volume of shipping through the Red Sea has plummeted—down to about 60% of pre-conflict levels. For many shipping companies, the risk simply isn’t worth it. And this latest attack is only going to deepen that hesitation. While the strikes had paused, the threat clearly never went away.
The Iran Factor—Or Lack Thereof
Interestingly, this escalation appears disconnected from the recent Israeli and U.S. operations that have battered Iran’s military apparatus in recent weeks. One might have expected the Houthis—an Iranian-backed proxy by nearly all accounts—to lash out in Tehran’s defense. That hasn’t happened. Despite the assassination of senior IRGC officials and the targeting of Iranian nuclear infrastructure, the Houthis have stayed (publicly, at least) focused on Gaza.
And that’s telling.
Their messaging has remained remarkably consistent: the blockade on Gaza must be lifted, or the attacks will continue. Whether one believes in the sincerity of that claim is beside the point. The Houthis have chosen that hill, and they’re not moving from it. Even as Israel and the U.S. grind down Iran’s regional influence, Yemen’s rebels seem laser-focused on Gaza as their casus belli.
What Comes Next?
Don’t expect the United States to respond with force to the Magic Seas attack. The vessel wasn’t U.S.-flagged, and there’s little appetite in Washington to reignite a direct confrontation with the Houthis—especially after months of tiptoeing away from escalation.
Israel, on the other hand, appears ready and willing to respond unilaterally. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was blunt, declaring that “anyone who raises his hand against Israel will have it cut off.” If that rhetoric holds, more strikes inside Yemen are likely in the days to come—especially if Houthi projectiles continue flying toward Israeli territory.
But perhaps the most sobering takeaway is this: the Red Sea remains a live theater in a sprawling, often ambiguous conflict. And in such a theater, ceasefires are less about peace and more about pauses. Yesterday’s events made that point unmistakably clear.
And for the global shipping industry, for Israel, and for the civilians in Yemen caught in the middle—every pause now comes with a warning: the next eruption may be just one boat, one drone, or one speech away.
