Is China’s Strongman Losing His Grip Amid Whispers of a Coup?
For years, Xi Jinping has been the unshakable cornerstone of China’s political machine, a leader whose grip on power seemed as enduring as the Great Wall. But lately, the whispers have grown louder—rumors of military purges, family betrayals, and even health crises are swirling around the Chinese president. Could the man who centralized power like no other Chinese leader in decades be losing his hold? Or are these just the latest in a long line of unverified stories designed to sow confusion in the opaque world of Chinese elite politics? Let’s dive into the latest buzz, unpack the rumors, and try to make sense of what’s happening behind the curtain of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The Rumor Mill: A Brother’s Betrayal?
One of the juiciest pieces of gossip making the rounds involves Xi Jinping’s younger brother, Xi Yuanping. Word on the street—or rather, on certain corners of the internet—is that Yuanping penned a letter distancing himself from his powerful sibling. The alleged letter paints Xi Jinping as consumed with running the country, while Yuanping claims to have been managing the Xi family’s interests, implying a rift in ideology and priorities. The narrative? Yuanping is throwing his brother under the bus to protect the family’s legacy in a time of political turmoil.
But let’s pause for a second. Does this story hold water? Family dynamics in the CCP are notoriously complex, often tangled with loyalty and self-preservation. A decade ago, investigative reports from outlets like Bloomberg and The New York Times revealed how Xi’s family amassed significant wealth through his political influence, with assets in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia. If Yuanping is now trying to separate the family’s image from Xi’s political brand, it could be a calculated move to shield their fortune from a potential fallout. Yet, without concrete evidence of this letter, it feels more like a tantalizing rumor than a confirmed fact. After all, in the CCP’s black-box system, where information is tightly controlled, such leaks often serve as strategic distractions or factional warfare.
The Military Puzzle: A Coup or a Purge?
More compelling—and potentially more consequential—are the rumors surrounding Xi’s control over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). For months, murmurs have suggested that Xi has lost his iron grip on the military, with power shifting to Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. A recent announcement from the PLA Daily, the military’s mouthpiece, seems to lend credence to these claims. The notice, titled “Central Military Commission Issued Regulations to Firmly Establish the Image and Prestige of Political Cadres,” is short but loaded. It calls for eradicating “poison” and eliminating “shortcomings” within the PLA’s political ranks—language that echoes past purges of high-profile figures like Zhou Yongkang or Xu Caihou.
This kind of rhetoric isn’t just bureaucratic jargon; it’s a signal. In CCP-speak, “eradicating poison” often means a power struggle has reached a boiling point. The notice’s focus on the “upper crust” of the PLA’s political class—think top commanders and commission members—raises eyebrows. Names like He Weidong, the second vice chair, and Miao Hua, a political commissar, have surfaced in rumors about disappearances. Both are Xi loyalists, promoted during his 2022 reshuffle. If they’ve vanished, it could mean one of two things: either Xi is purging his own allies to tighten control, or someone else is pulling the strings, targeting Xi’s inner circle to weaken him.
Here’s where it gets murky. The PLA Daily notice barely mentions Xi, which is unusual for a regime that typically showers its leader with praise. In the past, Xi’s “thought” on military strengthening was a cornerstone of such announcements. Now? Silence. It’s as if the PLA is quietly distancing itself from Xi’s brand. Imagine if a Trump rally suddenly stopped chanting his name—something’s off, right? This omission, combined with reports of over 100 commanders and generals—many tied to Xi—being replaced or arrested, fuels speculation that Xi may have attempted a coup to reclaim military control and failed.
Historical Echoes: Power Struggles in the CCP
To understand what’s happening, we need to zoom out. The CCP has a long history of internal power struggles, often cloaked in secrecy and punctuated by purges. Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution was a masterclass in consolidating power by eliminating rivals. Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, while opening China to the world, didn’t eliminate factionalism; they just changed its flavor. Xi himself rose to power by navigating these treacherous waters, using anti-corruption campaigns to sideline opponents and cement his authority.
But Xi’s approach—centralizing power to an unprecedented degree—has made enemies. His decade-plus reign has disrupted the delicate balance among CCP factions, from the Shanghai clique to the Communist Youth League. The military, in particular, is a battleground. Unlike Western democracies, where the military is subordinate to civilian leadership, the PLA is the CCP’s armed wing, loyal to the party rather than the state. Xi’s efforts to install loyalists like He Weidong and Miao Hua were meant to secure his influence, but if these allies are now being purged, it suggests a counterforce—possibly led by Zhang Youxia—is asserting dominance.
Geopolitical Stakes: Why This Matters
Why should the world care about these rumors? For one, China’s political stability—or lack thereof—has global ripple effects. Xi’s leadership has shaped China’s assertive foreign policy, from territorial claims in the South China Sea to the Belt and Road Initiative. A weakened Xi could alter Beijing’s approach to Taiwan, trade, or even its rivalry with the United States. If the military is slipping from his control, questions arise about who’s calling the shots and whether they share Xi’s vision of a “great rejuvenation” for China.
Moreover, the timing is critical. With global tensions rising—think U.S.-China trade disputes, Taiwan’s growing defiance, and Russia’s reliance on Chinese support in Ukraine—any instability in Beijing could shift the geopolitical chessboard. A power struggle within the CCP could embolden or restrain China’s actions, depending on who emerges on top. And let’s not forget the economic angle: China’s economy is already grappling with a property crisis and slowing growth. Political uncertainty could spook investors, further destabilizing global markets.
The Health Card: Fact or Fiction?
Then there’s the wild card: Xi’s health. A Chinese YouTuber claims to have obtained a medical report detailing a litany of ailments—Parkinson’s disease, chronic heart failure, kidney issues, and even alcoholic fatty liver. The report paints a picture of a leader in decline, physically and perhaps politically. But here’s the catch: there’s no proof this report belongs to Xi. Medical experts consulted by the YouTuber confirmed the results are plausible but could describe any middle-aged or elderly Chinese man with a history of heavy drinking. Xi’s known to enjoy a drink, and occasional tremors have been noted, but this is far from a smoking gun.
This rumor feels like classic CCP disinformation. When power struggles intensify, health rumors often surface to undermine a leader’s image. Mao faced similar whispers in his later years, as did Deng. These stories serve a purpose: they signal vulnerability, whether real or manufactured, to test the waters or weaken a rival. If Xi’s health is indeed failing, it could explain why factions are jockeying for position now, sensing an opportunity to reshape the party’s future.
Sifting Through the Noise
So, what’s the truth? That’s the million-dollar question. The CCP’s opacity makes it nearly impossible to separate fact from fiction. The military purge seems the most credible rumor, backed by the PLA Daily’s announcement and the absence of Xi’s name in key documents. The brotherly betrayal and health scare, while juicy, lack solid evidence and feel more like factional propaganda. What’s clear is that something is stirring in Beijing. The uptick in rumors since 2024, compared to the relative quiet of Xi’s early years, suggests his once-unassailable position is fraying.
My take? Xi’s centralization of power may have backfired. By sidelining rivals and stacking the military with loyalists, he created a system dependent on his personal authority. Now, with potential cracks in that foundation—whether due to a failed coup, internal dissent, or health issues—rival factions smell blood. Zhang Youxia’s rise, if true, could signal a shift toward a more collective leadership, a throwback to the pre-Xi era. But don’t count Xi out yet. He’s weathered storms before, and his knack for political survival is unmatched.
Looking Ahead: A Fragile Future?
As we watch this drama unfold, one thing is certain: the CCP’s inner workings remain a mystery wrapped in a riddle. For now, we’re left with fragments—PLA notices, unverified letters, and questionable medical reports. But these fragments tell a story of a party in flux, grappling with the legacy of a leader who reshaped China in his image. Whether Xi can claw back his power or whether a new force will rise, only time will tell. Until then, the world watches, wondering: is this the beginning of the end for Xi Jinping’s reign, or just another chapter in China’s endless game of thrones?
