China’s Silent Power Shift: Zhang Youxia’s Rise Amid Rumors of Xi Jinping’s Decline
In the opaque world of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics, where public appearances and state media narratives often mask deeper turmoil, recent developments have sparked intense speculation about a seismic shift in power. As of late July 2025, whispers of a “silent coup” led by General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), have grown louder. With President Xi Jinping notably absent from key military engagements and international forums like the BRICS summit, questions arise: Is Xi’s iron grip loosening? And could Zhang, a battle-hardened general with deep ties to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), be positioning himself as the de facto controller of China’s armed forces? This article explores these rumors, the strategic military moves fueling them, and their potential ramifications for China’s internal stability and global relations. Drawing on emerging reports and historical context, we delve into a narrative that blends factional intrigue, succession deadlocks, and the ever-present specter of conflict.
The Enigma of Xi Jinping’s Absence
Xi Jinping’s public profile has long been synonymous with unyielding authority. Since assuming leadership in 2012, he has centralized power through anti-corruption campaigns that purged rivals, constitutional changes that abolished term limits, and a cult of personality rivaling Mao Zedong’s. Yet, in mid-2025, signs of vulnerability have emerged. Xi’s absence from the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro marked a historic first for a Chinese leader at this China-backed event, fueling speculation about his health and political standing. Official explanations cited scheduling conflicts, but analysts point to a pattern: Xi has appeared in only a handful of state media videos since May, delegating more duties to loyalists and issuing directives in writing rather than in person.
This retreat coincides with a sweeping military purge. Dozens of high-ranking PLA officers, many appointed by Xi, have been removed or vanished under corruption probes. The Rocket Force and Navy—key to Xi’s ambitions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea—have been hit hardest, with entire leadership teams dismantled. Experts argue this isn’t mere housekeeping; it’s a symptom of eroding control. Xi’s health rumors, including unverified reports of strokes or chronic conditions, have circulated for years, but their intensity spiked in 2025 amid economic woes like stagnant growth and flooding disasters.
Historically, CCP leaders’ absences often prelude power struggles. Mao’s later years saw factional battles, while Deng Xiaoping’s reforms masked internal rifts. Xi’s case echoes Hu Jintao’s humiliating removal from the 2022 Party Congress stage—a moment many interpret as Xi’s public assertion of dominance. Now, roles may be reversing, with Xi potentially sidelined by elders and military figures wary of his aggressive policies alienating allies and straining the economy.
Zhang Youxia: From Loyal Deputy to Potential Kingmaker
At the center of these rumors stands General Zhang Youxia, 75, a princeling whose father fought alongside Xi’s in the Chinese Civil War. Appointed CMC Vice Chairman in 2017, Zhang was seen as Xi’s steadfast ally, overseeing PLA modernization and loyalty purges. But by 2025, reports suggest he’s transcended that role, effectively commandeering the military amid Xi’s fade. Unlike Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny against Vladimir Putin in 2023—which some analysts initially compared Zhang to—Zhang operates within the system, leveraging his army roots and princeling status for a subtler ascent.
Zhang’s background is steeped in combat experience, rare among modern PLA leaders. He fought in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War and border skirmishes, earning a reputation for tactical acumen. His influence spans the Northern, Central, and Southern Theater Commands, with the ground forces—less affected by purges—remaining his stronghold. Princelings, the offspring of revolutionary elites, have chafed under Xi’s centralization, viewing it as a threat to their privileges. Zhang, backed by this faction, reportedly sees Xi’s policies as reckless, pushing China toward isolation.
Social media and overseas Chinese outlets buzz with claims that Zhang has sidelined Xi’s appointees, including removing Fang Yongxiang, Xi’s military gatekeeper. X posts from July 2025 speculate Zhang’s control over the PLA makes him untouchable, with one user noting, “Xi is losing a power struggle… Zhang Youxia has the power of the gun.” Yet, Zhang’s position is precarious. At 75, he’s beyond retirement age, retained perhaps for his loyalty—but now, that loyalty is questioned.
Analysts draw parallels to historical figures like Lin Biao, Mao’s designated successor who allegedly plotted a coup in 1971. Zhang’s strategy appears more calculated: consolidate military control, then negotiate politically. If true, this marks a pivot from Xi’s personality-driven rule to a more collective, elder-influenced model.
The 81st Group Army Redeployment: A Tactical Masterstroke?
A pivotal event in these rumors is the unannounced redeployment of the PLA’s 81st Group Army from Zhangjiakou—just 112 miles northwest of Beijing—to the northeast, near the former Shenyang Military Region, Zhang’s power base. This move, occurring amid the U.S.-led Talisman Sabre 2025 exercise, was framed as routine but carries deeper implications.
Talisman Sabre 2025, held from July 13 to August 4, is the largest iteration yet, involving 43,000 troops from 19 nations, simulating high-intensity Pacific warfare to deter China. While Beijing downplayed it, the 81st’s shift suggests internal priorities trump external threats.
The 81st, part of Beijing’s garrison, is no ordinary unit. It incorporates remnants of the 27th Army, infamous for its role in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, making it politically volatile and factionally diverse. Stationed near the capital, it poses a risk: in a crisis, whose orders would it follow? By relocating it to the northeast—home to China’s military-industrial heartland in Shenyang, Harbin, and Daqing—Zhang achieves multiple goals.
First, it tests loyalty chains: The abrupt move stressed command structures, revealing hesitations or resistance. Second, it secures defense manufacturing hubs for tanks, missiles, and logistics, wresting control from Xi’s grip. Third, it’s a silent ultimatum to party elders: Military maneuvers override political debates.
Fourth, it clears space for the 82nd Group Army (formerly the elite 38th), Zhang’s “Imperial Guards,” to solely guard Beijing. Finally, it prepares for potential conflict near Russia, exploiting century-old border disputes amid Moscow’s Ukraine quagmire.
No official PLA announcements confirm this redeployment, but satellite imagery and insider leaks align with rumors. In CCP lore, “he who controls the gun controls the regime”—a maxim Zhang seems to embody.
Succession Deadlock: Factions, Alliances, and the Path to Chaos
The CMC, once seven members strong under Xi, now has only four active: Zhang, He Weidong, and two others, with purges decimating the rest. This vacuum exposes a broader succession crisis. The Fourth Plenum, delayed from August 2025, highlights deadlocked elders unable to agree on Xi’s replacement.
Three factions dominate: Reformists led by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, favoring technocrats like Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua, demand Xi’s full ouster—including CMC chairmanship. Princelings, backing Zhang, seek to reclaim influence and protect assets from Xi’s wealth grabs. The Jiang Zemin faction, led by Zeng Qinghong, opportunistically supports Xi’s extension to 2027, buying time for deals.
Alliances are fragile. Reformists and princelings united against Xi post-Li Keqiang’s suspicious death but diverge on reforms: Elders fear princeling purges, while princelings dread sharing power. Xi’s loyalists, like Premier Li Qiang, push mega-projects like the Yarlung Zangbo Dam—three times the Three Gorges’ size—to buy votes with corruption-laden contracts. This dam, in Tibet, risks environmental catastrophe for India and Bangladesh, altering river flows and heightening geopolitical tensions.
Zhang rejects delays, knowing civilian votes outnumber military ones. By bypassing consensus, he declares the throne secondary to gun control—a Maoist echo in modern garb.
Potential Flashpoints: War as a Political Tool?
If deadlock persists, Zhang might escalate to war, consolidating power by invoking national emergency. Not against the U.S. or Taiwan—where dysfunctional Navy and Rocket Forces falter—but on land, leveraging army strength.
The northeast, near Russia, tops the list. Century-old disputes over territories like Vladivostok linger, with Russia’s Ukraine weakness inviting opportunism. Voices in the PLA urge reclamation, rallying nationalism. The Tibetan-Indian border is another option, dooming Xi’s dam project.
Even without intent, the perception of willingness deters rivals. The 81st’s move signals readiness, echoing how wars historically reset CCP politics—like the 1979 Vietnam incursion post-Deng’s rise.
Global Implications: A Fractured Dragon’s Roar
A Zhang-led shift could moderate China’s aggression, prioritizing stability over Xi’s wolf warrior diplomacy. Yet, internal chaos risks miscalculation, escalating tensions in the South China Sea or Taiwan.
For the West, this underscores China’s vulnerabilities. Talisman Sabre’s scale deters adventurism, but a cornered regime might lash out. Allies like Russia and Iran watch warily, as Beijing’s focus turns inward.
Economically, purges and floods exacerbate slowdowns, potentially sparking unrest. If Zhang prevails, expect pragmatic reforms; if not, prolonged instability.
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Beijing’s Shadows
Rumors of Zhang Youxia’s silent coup paint a picture of a CCP at crossroads: Xi’s era waning, military might ascending. While unconfirmed, these developments—redeployments, absences, factional rifts—signal profound change. China watchers must monitor PLA moves and Plenum delays for clues. In a system where power flows from the barrel of a gun, Zhang’s maneuvers remind us: Stability is illusory, and the next chapter could reshape Asia’s balance. As tensions simmer, the world braces for a dragon’s unpredictable turn.
